海宁皮草业最佳销售策略数学模型研究

【摘要】  皮草皮革产业是海宁的传统优势产业，也是海宁重要的区域特色产业。近年来，海宁众多自产自销皮草厂家面临着巨大的同行竞争压力，皮草销售行情每况愈下。因此制定合适的皮草销售策略是海宁自产自销皮草商家能在竞争激烈的皮草市场生存下去的重要途径。

本文首先采用访问调查法获得海宁皮草各自产自销商家2017年11月至2018年1月所销售皮草的平均制作成本、平均其他成本、平均售价和销售量四个指标数据，再用SPSS回归分析得出平均总成本与销售量的函数关系式，平均售价与销售量的函数关系式，利用关系式整合回归得到的两个函数，分析求解得到的一元三次利润函数，对其求最大值，同时也能得出利润最大时的平均总成本、平均售价和销售量数据。最后用主成分分析法求成本系数值，确定平均制作成本与平均其他成本在平均总成本中的权重，对应得到平均制作成本和平均其他成本数据。从而能给海宁自产自销皮草厂家合适的销售策略。

【关键词】  自产自销，销售策略，访问调查法，回归分析，主成分分析

The Mathematical Model Study of Haining Fur Industry’s Best Sales Strategy

【Abstract】   The fur industry is Haining’s traditional dominant industry, and is also the regional characteristic industry. in recent years, many Haining’s fur factory who produce and market all by themselves faces with a huge pressure of peer competition. The sales quotations of fur industry become poorer day by day. So make the right sales strategy is the important approach to make Haining’s fur factory who produce and market all by themselves can survive in the competitive fur market.

This article first adopts the method of visiting investigation to the acquire average production cost, the average other cost , the average selling price and the quantity of sales of furs that Haining’s fur factories sold from November 2017 to January 2018.  Than get the functional relation between average cost and quantity of sales, the functional relation between average selling price and quantity of sales by regression analysis in SPSS. Got the integration function with the comparison expression of , solve the finally one   variable cubic equation,get the maximal value and the correspondent average cost, average selling price and quantity of sales can be obtained at the same time. Last calculation of cost system value by principal component analysis, and get the weight in the average total cost of the acquire average production cost and the average other cost, get the value of the acquire average production cost and the average other cost. So that Haining’s fur factory can have the right sales strategy.

【Key Words】   produce and market all by themselves，sales strategy，the method of visiting investigation，regression analysis，principal component analysis