浙江省私家轿车拥有量的影响因素分析
【摘要】 私家车作为人们出行最普遍的方式，具有速度快，节约时间的优点。近年来，随着我国经济的快速发展和人民收入的日益提高，私家车成了每户人家必不可少的交通工具。日益增长的私家车也带来了许多的问题。因此，用计量经济学对私家车拥有量的影响因素分析和预测就显得非常有必要了。对此，本文主要采用多元统计回归模型进行研究，选用最小二乘估计法进行分析。实证地研究了除私家车自身价格外，其他因素对浙江省私家车拥有量的影响。研究结果表明，城镇人均可支配收入、城镇人口和公路通车里程对浙江省私家车拥有量成正比关系，国际油价对浙江省私家车拥有量呈反比关系。
【关键词】 私家车，最小二乘估计法，影响因素
Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Private Car Ownership in Zhejiang Province
【Abstract】 Private cars as the most popular way people travel, with the advantages of speed, save time. In recent years, with the rapid development of China's economy and the increasing incomes of the people, the private car has become an indispensable means of transport for every household. The growing number of private cars has also brought a lot of problems. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze and forecast the influencing factors of private car ownership with econometrics. This paper studies the factors with multivariate statistical regression model then analyze them with least squares estimation. In addition to their own private car prices, we study other factors that have influence on the amount of private cars in Zhejiang Province empirically. The results show that the urban per capita disposable income, urban population and highway mileage are proportional to the private car ownership in Zhejiang Province, and the international oil price is inversely proportional to the private car ownership in Zhejiang Province.
【Key Words】 Private car，Least squares estimation method，Influencing factors
表目录
表3.1 2006-2015年浙江省公路总里程和高速公路长度
表3.2 四个省份与全国的交通基础设施情况表
表4.1 各指标数据情况
表4.2 初始OLS模型回归结果
表4.3 
与
的模型回归结果
