杭州市房价的影响因素研究

摘  要

关调控政策通过影响按揭首付比例和调整贷款利率，对一线城市的房价将产生较大的影响。但是，这种影响可能不是单向的，因为两类杠杆率表现的分别是杠杆率在房屋需求和房屋供给两方面的影响，提高首付比例和贷款利率将同时降低杠杆率在房屋需求和房屋供给方面的效应，从而冷却需求、减少供给，房产价格的变化将不可直接确定。相应地，一线城市的房产价格若在外力不干预的前提下，上涨的时间和空间已有限。第二，二线城市中杠杆率对房地产价格的影响较大，特别是主要表现在个人消费者的杠杆率方面，这将使得二线城市中可能出现较长时间的 价量齐升。同时，房贷政策调控的效果对于二线城市可能是最强的，因为杠杆率在二线城市的表现主要集中在房屋需求方面，所以，上调首付金比例和贷款利率将大大影响通过杠杆率完成需求的满足，需求将得到一定程度的抑制，房产价格随之下降。第三，三线城市中杠杆率对房地产价格的影响不大，主要表现在房地产开发企业的投资杠杆方面。而引发三线城市价格上涨的主因在于地方财政过度依赖土地收入，因此，房贷政策的调控措施对三线城市的房价影响不大，从地方财政着手可能效果更佳。第四，房贷政策调控的时机和力度还有待进一步的研究，特别是对通货膨胀率的预期，仅表现为名义利率的上调根本无法对房地产价格产生影响。

杭州市经济处于全国的领跑地位，房价也是居高不下。高房价增加了杭州市居民的生活成本，很多中低层收入群一生奔波但还是买不起房，高房价已经从一个经济问题上升到成为社会问题。本文主要目的是探究影响杭州市房价的因素，在众多的影响因素中，选取人口因素、人均国内生产总值，人均可支配收入和金融机构的贷款余额进行因素研究。研究工具使用具备强大的数据处理和图形表达功能的spass对各因子进行多元回归的数据分析，得出杭州市房价与之的关系和影响系数。

关键词：杭州市,房价,,金融杠杆,影响因素

ABSTRACT

By influencing the mortgage down payment ratio and adjusting the loan interest rate, the customs control policy will have a greater impact on the housing prices in first-tier cities. However, this impact may not be unidirectional. Because the performance of the two types of leverage ratio is the impact of the leverage ratio on housing demand and housing supply, increasing the down payment ratio and the loan interest rate will reduce the impact of the leverage ratio on both housing demand and housing supply at the same time, thereby cooling demand. Reduce supply, the change of real estate price will not be able to determine directly. Accordingly, the real estate price of first-tier city if the premise that outside force does not interfere, the time and space that rise already limited. Second, the leverage ratio in second-tier city is opposite to house The impact of property prices is greater, especially in terms of the leverage of individual consumers, which could lead to a prolonged rise in prices in second-tier cities. At the same time, The effect of housing loan policy regulation may be the strongest for second-tier cities, because the performance of leverage ratio in second-tier cities is mainly concentrated on housing demand, so, An increase in the down payment ratio and loan interest rates will greatly affect the satisfaction of demand through leverage, and demand will be restrained to a certain extent, and property prices will fall. Third, the leverage ratio in third-tier cities has little impact on real estate prices. It is mainly manifested in the investment leverage of real estate development enterprises. The main reason for the rise in the prices of third-tier cities is that local governments are over-dependent on land income. Therefore, the regulation and control measures of housing loan policies have little impact on housing prices in third-tier cities, and local finance may be more effective. Fourth, The timing and intensity of the adjustment and control of the mortgage policy need to be further studied, especially the expectation of inflation rate, which only shows that the increase of nominal interest rate has no effect on the real estate price at all.

Hangzhou's economy is in the leading position in the country, and housing prices are also high. High housing prices have increased the living costs of Hangzhou residents, and many low-income groups have spent their lives running around but still can't afford to buy a house. High house prices have risen from an economic problem to a social problem. The main purpose of this paper is to explore the factors that affect housing prices in Hangzhou. Among the many influencing factors, choose population factors, per capita GDP, The factors of per capita disposable income and loan balance of financial institutions were studied. The research tools used spass, which has powerful data processing and graphic representation, to analyze the data of each factor by multivariate regression. The relationship and influence coefficient of housing price in Hangzhou are obtained.

Key words: Hangzhou, house price, financial leverage, influencing factors