深圳市经济发展与环境污染研究

数学与统计学院信息与计算科学专业 李楚锋

【摘要】根据环境库兹涅茨曲线理论，城市的经济发展趋势与环境污染程度有一定的相关关系，或是呈现倒“U”型走势，或是呈现正“N”型走势；然而，这个理论于20世纪中期被提出，仅对当时的以重工业为经济支柱转型为以金融业为经济支柱的城市有较大的指导意义. 对于现如今崛起的新兴科技城市，环境库兹涅茨曲线是否再具有指导意义，或者其指导方式是否有所变化，对此本文对新兴城市深圳市市区的环境与经济进行相关度研究分析，并使用分析结果对环境库兹涅茨曲线研究验证，最终通过使用结果模型预测未来环境污染走势.

【关键词】环境库兹涅茨曲线；主成分分析；线性拟合

Shenzhen Economic Development and Environmental Pollution Research

【Abstract】According to the theory of environmental Kuznets curve, the trend of urban economic development is related to the trend of environmental pollution to a certain extent, either showing an inverted U-shaped trend or a positive N-shaped trend; however, this theory was put forward in the mid-20th century, which only gave a great guidance to the cities that transformed heavy industry as the economic pillar into financial industry as the economic pillar at that time. Significance. Whether the Environmental Kuznets Curve is of guiding significance to the emerging science and technology cities, or whether its guiding mode has changed, this paper studies and analyses the correlation between environment and economy in Shenzhen, a new city, and uses the analysis results to verify the environmental Kuznets Curve. Finally, the environmental pollution in the future is predicted by using the result model. Trend.

【Keywords】Environmental Kuznets Curve; Principal Component Analysis; Linear Fitting