论文目录
摘 要
Abstract
1 引言
1.1 选题背景和意义
1.2 国内外研究状况
1.2.1 国外研究状况
1.2.2 国内研究状况
1.3 本文研究内容和基本思路
2 对外贸易和经济增长概述
2.1 对外贸易概述
2.1.1 对外贸易的涵义
2.1.2对外贸易的主要理论
2.2经济增长概述
2.2.1经济增长涵义
2.2.2经济增长的主要理论
2.3对外贸易与经济增长关系
2.3.1对外贸易与经济增长关系的主要理论
2.3.2对外贸易促进经济增长的机制
3 浙江省经济增长与对外贸易发展状况
3.1 浙江省经济增长和对外贸易的总量特征
3.1.1浙江省经济增长的总量特征
3.1.2浙江省对外贸易的总量特征
3.2 浙江省对外贸易发展现状
3.2.1浙江省对外贸易发展基本情况
3.2.2对外贸易对浙江省经济增长的影响
3.2.3浙江省对外贸易存在的问题
4 对外贸易对浙江省经济增长影响的实证分析
4.1 模型理论分析
4.2指标选取和数据处理
4.3实证过程
4.3.1平稳性检验
4.3.2协整分析
4.3.3格兰杰因果检验
4.4实证结果分析
5 结论与政策建议
5.1基本结论
5.2浙江省对外贸易的政策建议
致 谢
摘 要
随着经济全球化和区域经济一体化的发展，对外贸易对经济增长的作用越来越大。改革开放以来，随着我国对外开放程度的不断提高，我国的出口贸易大幅增长，国民经济增长也维持着较高的增长水平。
本文选择以浙江省为研究对象，探索对外贸易对经济增长的影响。首先从理论的角度对对外贸易和经济增长进行了概述，且对两者之间的关系进行说明。其次，对浙江省经济增长和对外贸易发展状况进行了介绍。先分别从总量水平和人均水平的角度分析了浙江省的经济增长状况，然后从对外贸易的规模、模式、商品结构以及对外贸易地理分布方面分析了浙江省的对外贸易发展状况。再次，分析了对外贸易对浙江省经济增长的影响。在本文中采用协整检验分析技术和格兰杰因果关系检验，利用1986-2009年浙江省各相关数据，分析了对外贸易对其经济增长的影响。通过实证分析，给出相关政策建议。
关键词： 浙江省，对外贸易，经济增长
Abstract
With the economic globalization and regional economic integration, the influence of foreign trade on economic growth is playing an increasingly important role. Since the time when the reform and open policy was carried out, along with enhancement of the opening up degree of our country to foreign countries, the export trade of our country has been growing dramatically, the growth of GDP is also maintaining a high level.
Zhejiang Province is chosen as the studying subject for exploring the influence of foreign trade on economic growth. Firstly, from a theoretical point of view of foreign trade and economic growth were outlined, and on the relationship between the two instructions. Secondly, the paper introduces of the situations of Zhejiang province. Firstly , economic growth is respectively described from the views of totality and per capita. Then it narrates foreign trade development in Zhejiang province by analyzing the size and pattern of foreign trade, commodity structure and the geographical distribution.Then the paper analyzes the influence of foreign trade on Zhejiang Province’s economic growth. The situation of the whole province is described by using cointegration analysis and testing Granger Causality to the data of Zhejiang province from 1986-2009.Thus at the end of the paper it gives some political suggestion.
Key Words： Zhejiang Province, foreign trade, economic growth，empirical analysis
